All eyes will be on the larger East African economy tomorrow, as Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya announce their budgets for the fiscal year July 2o1o-June 2011. With donor countries like the U.k. eyeing austerity measures, analysts believe that the three countries will turn to the financial markets through sovereign bonds and domestic infrastructure bonds, Bloomberg Business Week reported. East Africa is the fastest growing region on the African continent, and the African Development Bank predicts that it will grow at a rate of 6 percent in the upcoming year.

Uganda's finance minister, Syda Bbumba, will reveal the countries' budget for the upcoming financial year tomorrow.
According to a draft budget released by Uganda on May 21st, donor grant and loans in the budget will drop from $513 million to $345 million this financial year. Tanzania, hoping to wean itself off its dependency on foreign donors, hope to cut donor support from 39 percent of its budget last year to 25 percent this year. Kenya also hopes to fund large renewable energy projects in the year ahead through$500 million USD of international bonds, rather than foreign aid, the same amount that Tanzania hopes to raise in a sale of Eurobonds in the next financial year. Uganda doesn’t plan to sell bonds abroad, but will issue domestic bonds for infrastructure projects.
An interest in bonds has stemmed from increasing budget deficits, coupled with a decrease in donor aid. Budget deficits, however, are still relatively low. Uganda’s budget deficit this year was only 2.4 percent of its GDP, compared to European countries like Spain, whose budget deficit reached almost 10 percent of its GDP this year. All three East African countries are seeking financing and investment in infrastructure, particularly to increase countries’ electricity supply. Only 14 percent of Tanzanians, for example, have access to electricity. Analysts predict the countries’ budgets this year will focus on infrastructure and agriculture. Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania’s economies are largely agriculture-based.
Sovereign bonds are bonds issued by national governments and denominated in foreign currencies, popular in developing countries because they are issued in hard currencies of countries with stable economies. Since bonds from emerging countries are typically riskier, investors can usually buy sovereign bonds at a discount rate. Domestic bonds are denominated in the local currency of a country where it’s issued.

Economist and foreign aid critic Dambisa Moyo hopes African countries tap bond markets more, rather than continuing to seek foreign aid to finance their budgets.
One of East African Money’s favorite writers and economists, Dambisa Moyo, has gained attention for arguing that developing countries should finance their budgets through the bond markets, rather than foreign aid (or “dead aid” as Moyo dubs it). In an op-ed in the Independent, Moyo writes:
- “What the credit crunch has effectively done is to instigate this process by default. With Western donors facing mounting fiscal pressures and gaping deficits, foreign aid flows are in inevitable decline (Italy has already cut its foreign aid budget by half), and with this comes a chance for Africa to chart a strategy that delivers long-term economic growth. This is, after all, ostensibly the goal of any individual or institution that wishes to see Africa become an equal partner in the global community. I have long believed that far from being a catalyst, foreign aid has been the biggest single inhibitor of Africa’s growth. Among its shortcomings, aid is correlated with corruption, fosters dependency, and invariably instils bureaucracy that hinders the emergence of an essential entrepreneurial class.
- For Africa to grow in a sustained way, foreign aid will have to be dramatically reduced over time, forcing countries to adopt more transparent strategies to finance development.. In the past 18 months the sovereign bond issues of Ghana and Gabon (as well as a number of corporate and bank issues) have shown that innovative thinking towards more transparent methods of financing Africa’s development may be catching on – but there is clearly scope for improvement. No one can say for sure how long market-based financing would take to yield sturdy growth for Africa, but one thing is for sure, it will be faster than continuing to rely on aid. These dark economic times are just the opening Africa needs to show that it can at last contribute meaningfully to the global economy rather than perennially being viewed as a drag….”
Well, the upcoming financial year for these major East African countries may give Moyo a chance to test her thesis. And the financial challenges slamming the countries’ donors may continue to encourage East African countries to seek more transparent financing options for their budgets. Ugandans, Tanzanians, and Kenyans can also gain more dignity in the process as they walk away from foreign aid.
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